gaps fill all the way back to the prior close a lot less often than most traders think. on NQ over the last 6 months, only 55.0% of gaps filled all the way in the NY session. but once you split them by gap size, one group of gaps fills almost every time.

according to edgeful data, NQ gaps under 0.4% of price went all the way back to the prior close 92.9% of the time over the last 6 months in the NY session. gaps of 0.4% or bigger did it 26.7% of the time.

here's how often gaps fill on ES and NQ right now, why the full fill stopped working as a blanket target, and the plan I'd use to trade it: the gap size filter, the entry, the stop from the gap fill by spike report, and the target for each gap size.

table of contents

• what a gap fill is
• do gaps always fill? the 6-month numbers
• how often gaps fill at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%
• gap size: why small gaps fill and big gaps don't
• what this looked like this week on NQ
• how to trade gaps that fill: entry, stop, and target
• common mistakes when trading gaps
• key takeaways

what a gap fill is

a gap is the distance between yesterday's close and today's open. on futures, edgeful measures it in the NY session: the prior session close versus the 9:30am ET open.

if NQ opens above yesterday's close, that's a gap up. if it opens below, that's a gap down.

a fill is when price comes back during the session and touches yesterday's close. that level is the gap fill target. the gap fill report takes every gap up and gap down day over the time period you pick and shows how often gaps fill.

if you want the basics of trading the setup first, we covered them in our gap fill trading strategy post.

do gaps always fill? the 6-month numbers

gaps don't always fill, and lately the full fill has been weaker than usual.

from late September 2025 through March 2026, ES gaps filled all the way 66.4% of the time in the NY session (85 of 128 gaps). over the last 6 months, that dropped to 50.8% (66 of 130). NQ sat at 55.0% in both windows.

here's how the full fill broke down on NQ over the last 6 months in the NY session:

• gap ups filled all the way 52.6% of the time (40 of 76)
• gap downs filled all the way 58.2% of the time (32 of 55)

I usually want a report at 60-65% before I trade it, and neither of those numbers gets there. but the gap fill is one of the easiest setups to understand, and one of my favorites to trade.

so I asked edgeful AI a simple question: "i want to build a gap fill strategy but the stats for the 100% fill are currently pretty bad. what can i do?"

it came back with a list of ways to customize the report: a lower fill target, gap size, weekday, the previous candle, fill time, and other tickers. I focused on 2 of them, the fill target and the gap size, because those 2 change how often gaps fill the most.

how often gaps fill at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%

the 100% fill is the default target for the gap fill setup. but you can change the gap fill percentage in the report to see how often price gets 25%, 50%, or 75% of the way back to yesterday's close.

here's every gap fill percentage on ES and NQ over the last 6 months in the NY session:

NQ:

• 25% of the gap: gap ups 84.2%, gap downs 90.9%
• 50% of the gap: gap ups 65.8%, gap downs 74.5%
• 75% of the gap: gap ups 60.5%, gap downs 63.6%
• 100% of the gap: gap ups 52.6%, gap downs 58.2%

ES:

• 25% of the gap: gap ups 76.0%, gap downs 90.9%
• 50% of the gap: gap ups 69.3%, gap downs 74.5%
• 75% of the gap: gap ups 61.3%, gap downs 54.5%
• 100% of the gap: gap ups 53.3%, gap downs 47.3%

the whole point is this: the smaller the target, the more often gaps fill to it. on both ES and NQ, the 25% and 50% targets all clear 60% on every line. the full fill doesn't clear 60% on any of them.

yes, the winners aren't as big $ wise. but you'll hit your target a lot more often if you're trading smaller targets, and that changes how the setup feels to trade day to day.

gap size: why small gaps fill and big gaps don't

the second thing edgeful AI pointed me to was gap size. this is where the setup really changed.

the gap fill by size subreport splits every gap by how big it was as a percentage of price, so you can see how often gaps fill at each size. I split NQ at 0.4%. right now 0.4% of NQ is roughly 118 points.

here's NQ over the last 6 months in the NY session:

• gaps under 0.4% (56 gaps): 25% fill 100%, 50% fill 96.4%, 75% fill 96.4%, full fill 92.9%
• gaps of 0.4% or bigger (75 gaps): 25% fill 77.3%, 50% fill 49.3%, 75% fill 36.0%, full fill 26.7%

on NQ, small gaps went all the way back to the prior close 92.9% of the time. big gaps did it 26.7% of the time. so on a small gap, you don't have to settle for the smaller target. you can go for the full fill.

small gaps aren't rare either. 56 of the 131 NQ gap days over the last 6 months were under 0.4%, which works out to about twice a week.

what about ES?

small ES gaps fill more often too, but nowhere near NQ. over the same 6 months in the NY session:

• ES gaps under 0.4% (77 gaps): 25% fill 90.9%, 50% fill 80.5%, 75% fill 74.0%, full fill 66.2%
• ES gaps of 0.4% or bigger (53 gaps): 25% fill 69.8%, 50% fill 58.5%, 75% fill 35.8%, full fill 28.3%

small ES gaps filled all the way 66.2% of the time, just over my 60-65% bar. small NQ gaps did it 92.9% of the time. that's why the setup below is NQ only.

what this looked like this week on NQ

any gap under 0.4% at the 9:30am ET open is a small gap. the week of September 21, 2026 on NQ had all 4 outcomes:

• Monday: NQ opened 305.5 points above Friday's close, a 1.02% gap. big gap, and price never even filled 25% of it.
• Tuesday: NQ opened 20 points below Monday's close, a 0.06% gap. small gap, and price filled the whole thing.
• Wednesday: another small gap down, 22.75 points (0.07%). price filled 25% of it and never made it back to the prior close.
• Thursday: NQ opened 251.25 points below the prior close (0.82%). big gap, and it filled all the way.

small gaps fill most of the time and big gaps fill some of the time, so a single week will show both. over 6 months on NQ, small gaps filled all the way 92.9% of the time and big gaps 26.7%.

how to trade gaps that fill: entry, stop, and target

here's the full plan for trading gaps that fill on NQ.

step 1: check the gap size at 9:30am ET

what's in play goes live at the open, and the gap fill card shows the gap type, the gap size as a percentage, and the target. the gap size decides your target in step 4. we walk through the card in our post on the what's in play trading feature.

step 2: the entry

take the trade at the 9:30am ET open, back toward yesterday's close.

• gap up: short
• gap down: long

step 3: the gap fill stop, from the gap fill by spike report

price almost always moves against you before gaps fill. the gap fill by spike report shows how far. on the small NQ gaps that filled over the last 6 months, the typical move against the trade from the open was 0.17%.

so your stop goes 0.5% past the open. on 48/52 of those small gaps, your stop held without being hit.

on Friday, September 4, 2026, NQ gapped up 0.19%, then moved 0.35% against the short before it filled at 10:45am ET. if your stop was the size of the gap, you'd have been stopped out. the 0.5% stop held.

if you want the general version of this, our post on how to set a stop loss using data covers building stops from data instead of round numbers.

step 4: the target, by gap size

gaps under 0.4%: yesterday's close, the full fill. our gap fill indicator for TradingView plots that level on your chart, so it's already drawn.

with a 0.5% stop, you hit the target before your stop on 48/56 small gaps over the last 6 months. that counts the 4 that never filled as losses.

the 50% target only got hit on 2 more small gaps than the full fill (54/56 vs 52/56), and every win is half the size. so on small gaps, the full fill is the better target.

gaps of 0.4% or bigger: target 25% of the gap. price got there on 58/75 of these gaps (77.3%). the 50% target only got hit on 37/75 (49.3%) and the full fill on 20/75 (26.7%), both under my 60-65% bar. the TradingView gap fill indicator plots the 25% level too, so it's already on your chart.

the 0.5% stop is for small gaps. on a big gap, the 25% target is much closer to your entry, so a 0.5% stop means risking way more than you can make. use a tighter stop on big gaps.

these are 6 months of numbers on one ticker, so check the spike report on your own ticker and size the stop for your account before you trade it. the data shows what happened, not what will happen, and it takes time and testing to make any setup work for you.

common mistakes when trading gaps

assuming gaps always fill. on NQ over the last 6 months, 55.0% of gaps filled all the way. on big gaps it was 26.7%.

using the full fill on every gap. the full fill works on small NQ gaps (92.9%) and fails on big ones (26.7%). the gap size tells you which target to use.

setting the gap fill stop at the gap size. on 25 of the 52 small NQ gaps that filled over the last 6 months in the NY session, price moved further against the trade than the size of the gap before the gap filled. September 4 was one of them. the gap fill by spike report shows how far past the open your stop needs to be.

trading ES and NQ the same way. small ES gaps filled all the way 66.2% of the time over the same 6 months. that's a different setup from 92.9% on NQ.

never re-checking the numbers. the ES full fill went from 66.4% to 50.8% between two 6-month windows. how often gaps fill changes, so pull the report again before you trade it.

if you want to test other customizations, like weekday or the previous candle, you can ask edgeful AI the same question I did and have it run the numbers on your ticker.

key takeaways

• gaps fill all the way less often than most traders think: on NQ over the last 6 months in the NY session, 55.0% of gaps filled all the way back to the prior close
• lower targets fill more often: on both ES and NQ, 25% and 50% targets beat the full fill on every line
• gap size is the biggest filter: small NQ gaps (under 0.4%) filled 92.9% of the time, big gaps 26.7%
• small gaps: target the full fill, with a stop 0.5% past the open. on 48/52 small gaps that filled, that stop held without being hit
• big gaps: target 25% of the gap (77.3%), with a tighter stop than 0.5%
• how often gaps fill changes over time, so re-check the gap fill report before you trade it

this information is not trading advice and should be used for educational purposes only. futures, options, and forex are leveraged instruments, and carry a high degree of risk. past results are not indicative of future returns.